Research Questions Accuracy of UK Gambling Participation Data

Dan Waugh from Regulus Partners presented findings at the UNLV Eadington Conference 2026 that compared the UK Gambling Commission’s Gambling Survey for Great Britain against operator records, and the results showed consistent differences in reported participation levels. The analysis examined several categories where survey responses diverged from administrative data held by licensed operators, and it pointed to potential systemic issues in how participation estimates are collected. Those who reviewed the presentation noted that the discrepancies could affect how regulators interpret market size and consumer behavior patterns across Great Britain.

Discrepancies in Specific Gambling Categories

Figures for casino table game visits came in 408 to 628 percent higher in the survey than the actual numbers reported by members of the Betting and Gaming Council, while football pools participation appeared overstated by as much as 694 percent when measured against operator logs. Betting exchange activity showed an overstatement of 225 percent in the same comparison, and these gaps emerged after Waugh aligned survey responses with transaction records from the same time periods. Observers at the conference saw the pattern repeat across multiple product types, which suggested the survey method itself might introduce upward bias rather than isolated errors in individual questions.

Context of the UNLV Eadington Conference Presentation

The research arrived during the 2026 edition of the long-running UNLV Eadington Conference, an event that regularly draws academics, regulators, and industry analysts to discuss gambling policy and data practices. Waugh’s session focused on the methodological differences between self-reported survey instruments and the administrative datasets maintained by operators under licence conditions, and attendees heard direct comparisons that had not been published in the same detail before. The timing placed the findings amid ongoing discussions about how the UK Gambling Commission uses participation statistics to shape its regulatory priorities.

Implications for Regulatory Data Use

Policy decisions that rely on the Gambling Survey for Great Britain could rest on inflated participation estimates, according to the analysis, because the survey produces higher numbers than the records operators submit to the regulator. Waugh’s work highlighted the risk that systemic bias in survey design might distort understanding of how many people actually engage with different gambling products, and it recommended closer alignment between survey outputs and verified transaction data. Those who examined the full set of comparisons noted that the gaps were large enough to change the perceived scale of certain markets, which in turn could influence enforcement priorities or harm-minimisation measures.

The Betting and Gaming Council data served as the benchmark in the study because operators submit detailed participation figures as part of their licensing obligations, and these records are subject to audit. When the survey estimates were stacked against these audited numbers, the overstatements appeared across both high-volume and lower-volume activities, which strengthened the case that the issue is structural rather than confined to one segment. Regulators and researchers who attended the session received copies of the comparative tables, and further scrutiny of the underlying methodologies is expected in the months following the conference.

Next Steps After the 2026 Findings

The UK Gambling Commission has not yet issued a formal response to the specific discrepancies outlined in Waugh’s presentation, yet the data comparison remains available for review by policymakers and academics. Additional analysis could examine whether question wording, sampling frames, or response incentives contribute to the observed differences, and several conference participants indicated interest in replicating parts of the study with more recent datasets. The single linked source for the original reporting on this presentation can be found here, where the full set of percentage differences is listed alongside context on the survey methodology.

Conclusion

The presentation at the UNLV Eadington Conference 2026 established measurable gaps between the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and operator administrative records, with the largest overstatements appearing in casino table games, football pools, and betting exchange participation. These findings supply regulators with a concrete basis for reviewing how participation data are gathered and applied, and they open a pathway for future studies that combine survey responses with verified transaction information. As the industry and oversight bodies continue to refine evidence-based approaches, the comparisons presented by Regulus Partners offer one reference point for assessing the reliability of current statistical sources.